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Forecasting Malaria Infections In Rwanda Using Arima Model; Case Study Of Eastern Province
Malaria is a major public health problem in Eastern Province of Rwanda. To strengthen the country’s prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop a forecasting model of malaria infections with respect to climatic variables for the period 2008 to 2016 in Eastern Province. Data on monthly malaria infections in this region for the period January 2008 to December 2016 was obtained from Rwanda Biomedical Center whereas climatic data was obtained from Rwanda Meteorological Agency. Generalized linear models and SARIMA time series models were employed to analyze the data. These models were used to fit monthly malaria infections as a function of monthly mean temperature, r
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