Forecasting Electricity Demand For Kenya Using Ecm
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Forecasting Electricity Demand For Kenya Using Ecm
This paper investigates the relationship between Kenya electricity consumption, real disposable income and residential electricity prices. The research employs the Engle and Granger two-step procedure and Error Correction Model (ECM) method to a time series data over the period from 1980 to 2009 to analyze the electricity demand and forecast the electricity demand up to the year 2030. The model suggests a co-integration with long-run price and income elasticity of -0.095 and 0.1 respectively with 4% increase in consumption of other non-economic factors. The low, medium and high scenario’s peak demand forecast by the year 2030 is 4,813MW, 5,291MW, and 7,337MW respectively. Policy wise, a l
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